The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum has predicted above normal rainfall for the period April to June across the Caribbean islands including Dominica.
Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum, CARICOF, is prepared by the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology with contributions from meteorological services.
According to the rainfall frequency and extreme forecast, more wet days and wet spells are expected in the Eastern Caribbean especially in May and June. This means that there will be increasing surface and soil wetness, an increased number of days with disrupted outdoor activities and good recharge of water reservoirs from May to June.
However, according to a report by the Dominica Meteorological Service from CARICOF in December 2015, a dryer than normal season was predicted as a result of the strongest El Nino record which was expected to last until the end of the dry season. Drier and hotter than usual conditions were expected to lead to an increase in surface dryness and fewer wet spells would also result in reduced recharge of water reservoirs. Record breaking maximum temperatures were predicted.
But, this shift in prediction from a dry to now a wetter dry season will have implications for agriculture. Whereas in the dry season, crop yields are often limited by insufficient rainfall; in the wet season, yields are limited by an excess of rainfall that leads to water logging and flooding.
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